Strota Research
In-depth, human-edited analysis of the data behind India's market moves — FII/DII flow, F&O positioning and smart-money signals, read in layers rather than headlines. How we report →
We pressure-tested the popular claims about what predicts large single-day NSE moves against the academic and exchange evidence. Some hold up; several widely-repeated ones do not.
The reflex that 'FIIs buy, market up; FIIs sell, market down' fails three separate tests. The causality runs the other way, the correlation is weak, and India's SIP-fed domestic buyers have decoupled the large-cap index from foreign flows. Here's what the data supports — and what it doesn't.
Foreign investors went from their most bullish positioning in seven months to net cash selling in a matter of weeks. Read past the single headline number and the F&O data tells a more precise story: exposure reduction, not capitulation.