SIP Returns: Every Nifty 50 SIP Since 1999
Every monthly SIP into the Nifty 50 (with dividends) started since July 1999, over 3 to 20 years: the worst, typical and best returns, how often a lump sum did better, how long ₹1 crore took, and whether the SIP date matters.
Across every monthly Nifty 50 SIP (with dividends) started since Jul 1999, a 10-year SIP returned between 3.8% and 23.5% a year, typically 13.7%; none of the 208 lost money. Over 5 years 1% lost money and the worst returned -4.4% a year. The SIP date made almost no difference: 13.08% to 13.16% a year.
A SIP calculator assumes one steady return. Real markets don't give one. This page replays a monthly SIP into the Nifty 50 Total Return Index (what an index fund earns before its fee) for every start month since July 1999, and shows the range of results investors actually got.
Every equity and hybrid fund, category by category, with its returns, SIP return and record against its index: mutual funds compared.
SIP returns over 3 to 20 years: worst, typical and best
| Held for | SIPs tested | Worst (start) | Bottom 10% | Median | Top 10% | Best (start) | Lost money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 292 | -22.1% (Mar 2006) | 1.7% | 14.3% | 36.5% | 54.2% (Nov 2004) | 9% |
| 5 years | 268 | -4.4% (Apr 2015) | 7.1% | 14.2% | 32.6% | 47.9% (Nov 2002) | 1% |
| 10 years | 208 | 3.8% (Apr 2010) | 10.4% | 13.7% | 20.1% | 23.5% (Oct 2000) | 0% |
| 15 years | 148 | 6.9% (Apr 2005) | 11.6% | 13.4% | 15.6% | 17.6% (Mar 2000) | 0% |
| 20 years | 88 | 10.9% (Apr 2000) | 12.2% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 15.7% (Nov 2001) | 0% |
Returns are XIRR, the yearly rate that accounts for each instalment's own timing. Each row tests every start month that has the full period of data. The Nifty 50 Total Return Index (TRI) adds the dividends the index's companies pay, reinvested, which is what an index fund earns before its small fee. The price index leaves them out. Both series are NSE Indices' own, downloaded from niftyindices.com.
What ₹10,000 a month actually became
| Held for | Invested | Worst outcome | Median outcome | Best outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | ₹6,00,000 | ₹5,36,035 | ₹8,57,114 | ₹18,95,455 |
| 10 years | ₹12,00,000 | ₹14,60,426 | ₹24,50,015 | ₹41,59,675 |
| 15 years | ₹18,00,000 | ₹30,92,625 | ₹53,79,767 | ₹77,31,760 |
| 20 years | ₹24,00,000 | ₹80,98,735 | ₹1,12,38,991 | ₹1,44,87,942 |
Same SIP, same amount, different start months. The spread is the reason a calculator's single answer should be read as a rough guide.
Can a SIP give negative returns?
Yes, over short periods. 9% of 3-year Nifty SIPs and 1% of 5-year SIPs ended below the money put in; from 10 years on, none did in this history. A ₹10,000 SIP started in January 2008, the month the Nifty peaked before the 2008 crash, was worth ₹7,80,047 after 5 years (₹6,00,000 invested), a return of 10.4% a year. A ₹10,000 SIP started in January 2020, just before the Covid crash, was worth ₹9,15,109 after 5 years (₹6,00,000 invested), a return of 16.9% a year.
SIP vs lump sum: which did better?
| Period | How often investing the whole amount on day one ended ahead |
|---|---|
| 3 years | 87% |
| 5 years | 93% |
| 10 years | 100% |
| 15 years | 100% |
| 20 years | 100% |
Here the lump sum invests the SIP's total on the first day. Because markets rose more often than they fell, money invested earlier usually ended ahead. A SIP's real advantage is that most people invest from salary each month and have no lump sum, and that it spreads the risk of starting at a peak.
How long ₹1 crore took
| Monthly SIP | Fastest | Median | Slowest | SIPs that got there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ₹25,000 | 8 years 1 month | 13 years | 15 years | 165 |
| ₹50,000 | 5 years 3 months | 8 years 11 months | 10 years 3 months | 215 |
Counting only SIPs that reached ₹1 crore before today; those that started recently haven't had time yet.
Does the SIP date matter?
| SIP on the | Return a year, whole period |
|---|---|
| 1st of the month | 13.12% |
| 5th of the month | 13.09% |
| 10th of the month | 13.08% |
| 15th of the month | 13.13% |
| 20th of the month | 13.14% |
| 25th of the month | 13.16% |
| 28th of the month | 13.15% |
A SIP on the same date every month since Jul 1999, held to 29 Oct 2026. The best and worst dates are 0.07 percentage points a year apart, too small to plan around. Pick the date after your salary arrives.
Key takeaways
- Typical 10-year Nifty SIP: 13.7% a year; range 3.8% to 23.5%.
- 1% of 5-year SIPs lost money; no 10-year SIP did.
- With the money in hand, investing it all at once usually ended ahead.
- The SIP date makes almost no difference.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average SIP return in the Nifty 50?
The median 10-year SIP since Jul 1999 returned 13.7% a year with dividends; the middle 80% ranged from 10.4% to 20.1%.
Can SIP give negative returns?
Over 5 years, 1% of Nifty SIPs did; the worst returned -4.4% a year (started Apr 2015). Over 10 years or more, none did in this history.
Is SIP or lump sum better?
With the money in hand, a lump sum ended ahead in 100% of 10-year periods. A SIP suits money that arrives monthly and avoids putting everything in at a peak.
Which date is best for SIP?
It barely matters: returns ranged from 13.08% to 13.16% a year across dates.
How long does it take to make ₹1 crore with SIP?
With ₹25,000 a month in the Nifty, the median was 13 years (fastest 8 years 1 month).