Strota Research

A jeweller's free month beat a gold ETF in 80 of 132 tries since 2015

By Strota Newsroom · 2026-10-27 · How Strota reports

goldgold schemesgold ETFdigital goldrecurring depositjewellery

We ran ₹5,000 a month through a jeweller's scheme, a gold ETF, digital gold and a recurring deposit, for every start month since 2015. The free month was the steadiest result.

Put ₹5,000 a month into a jeweller's gold scheme, and the free last month hands you ₹60,000 of jewellery. We tested that deal against a gold ETF, digital gold and a recurring deposit. The plain scheme came out ahead of the ETF more often than not. For a family saving up for wedding jewellery, that is worth knowing before picking a route.

Which way of saving for gold left the most money?

The scheme beat a gold ETF in 80 of 132 start months. A gold ETF is a fund that trades on the stock exchange and tracks the gold price. The scheme never paid out less, because the free month is fixed. It does not care what gold does.

The ETF route ended at ₹59,444 on average, close to the scheme. But that average hides a wide spread. The worst ETF result fell below what the family paid in. The best was ₹80,956, a big win in a strong year for gold. The scheme gave the same amount every single time.

The year you began mattered a lot. ETF plans started in 2016 averaged ₹53,931, below what was paid in. Plans started in 2025 averaged ₹66,806, well above the scheme.

How much did gold need to rise for the ETF to win?

Gold rose over the plan in most windows. But a small rise was not enough. When gold fell or stayed flat, the ETF lost to the scheme in all 20 starts. Even when gold rose by up to 5%, it still lost every time.

The hurdle from the data is simple. Gold usually had to climb more than 10% over the plan for the ETF to pull ahead. Only in the biggest rallies did the ETF win most of the time, taking 37 of 44 of them.

Take the latest full plan, started in December 2025. Gold ended almost where it began. But most payments bought gold at higher prices along the way, so the ETF left only ₹52,980 against the scheme's fixed sum.

Is digital gold the same as a gold ETF?

No. Digital gold trailed the ETF in every single start. The reason is the 3% GST. You pay it when you buy, and you never get it back when you sell. So digital gold starts behind and stays behind. It trailed the ETF by ₹1,731 on average, and that gap would likely be wider in real life, since we left out the buy-sell gap that apps charge.

A recurring deposit at 6.7% gave about ₹56,818, every time. It never came out on top. But along with the scheme, it was the only route that never fell below what you put in. When gold fell or stayed flat, the RD even beat the ETF.

What is the catch with the jeweller's free month?

The ₹60,000 is not cash. It is jewellery, at one shop. If your family would buy there anyway, that hardly matters. If you want to shop around, or keep the gold as savings, the scheme cannot offer that. Making charges and GST also apply to any jewellery bill.

How we checked: we tested 132 plans, one starting on the first of each month over eleven years from January 2015. Each saved the same amount every month for eleven months and spent on day 330. The ETF used real NSE closing prices, so fund costs are included. Digital gold used the same Indian market price plus GST. The RD used the post office rate.

The limits are real. The plans overlap heavily, so these starts are far fewer separate tests than they seem. Gold rose in most of these years, and past gold returns are no forecast. We left out ETF brokerage, capital gains tax, tax on RD interest and digital gold spreads. The scheme terms are the most common structure, not one named plan, and real schemes add their own conditions.

Frequently asked questions

Is a jeweller gold scheme better than a gold ETF?

In our test since 2015, the scheme's free month beat a gold ETF in 80 of 132 start months. The ETF usually won only when gold rose more than 10% over the plan. The catch is that the scheme pays out in jewellery at one shop, not cash.

Why does digital gold give less than a gold ETF?

You pay 3% GST when you buy digital gold, and it does not come back when you sell. In our test, digital gold trailed the ETF in all 132 start months.

How does a recurring deposit compare with a gold scheme?

An RD at 6.7% turned ₹55,000 of payments into about ₹56,818, every time. It never beat the scheme's ₹60,000, but it never fell below what was paid in.

Sources and method

This note is based on Strota's own backtest research. Historical results are not forecasts or investment advice; see the editorial standards for methodology and limitations.