Strota Research

Does Muhurat trading bring luck? We checked every Diwali session since 2012

By Strota Newsroom · 2026-10-26 · How Strota reports

Muhurat tradingDiwaliNifty 50SamvatResearch

The Nifty 50 closed higher in 11 of 14 Muhurat sessions. But the gain was about ₹269 on ₹1 lakh, the glow faded the next day, and the year after was no better than one bought on any other day.

Every Diwali, many Indian families buy a share or two in the one-hour Muhurat trading session. They hope it brings luck for the Samvat year ahead. We looked at every Muhurat session from 2012 to 2025. The hour does tend to end green. But the luck is small, and it does not last. This matters now, because the next session falls this November and opens a new Samvat year. If your family plans a festive purchase, it helps to know what the ritual has really delivered.

Does the Nifty usually go up on Muhurat trading day?

Yes, most of the time. The Nifty closed higher in eleven of the fourteen Muhurat sessions. On ordinary days, it rose 53.8% of the time. So the Diwali evening does look a little friendlier.

But fourteen sessions is a tiny sample. A streak like this can easily happen by luck alone. We cannot say the evening is truly luckier. Only three sessions ended red. The worst of them, in 2017, slipped by 0.63%.

Now think in rupees. On an average Muhurat session, a lakh rupees in the Nifty moved by about ₹269. The best session ever made ₹880 on the same amount. That is a nice start to the year. It is not a windfall.

Does the festive mood carry into the next day?

Not really. The next regular session closed higher only 6 of 14 times. On a typical day after Muhurat, the market slipped a little. Whatever cheer the diyas bring, it has usually faded by then.

Is buying at Muhurat better than buying on any other day?

No. Say you put a lakh rupees into the Nifty at a Muhurat close and held it until the next Muhurat. On average, you ended with ₹1,12,931. Now say you bought on any ordinary trading day and held for a year. On average, you ended with ₹1,13,980. So the special hour did not beat a random Tuesday. It came out a little behind, though the gap is too small to mean much.

The range is wide, too. In the best Samvat year, the same lakh grew to ₹1,40,190 by the next Diwali. In the worst, it ended at ₹97,630, a small loss. Same ritual, very different years. The hour you bought did not decide the outcome.

Is a red Muhurat a bad sign for the year?

No. Three Samvat years opened with a down session. On average, those years still gained +11.19%. The ten years that opened with an up session averaged +13.45%.

So a good evening did not point to a good year. A bad evening did not point to a bad year either. Samvat years ended higher 11 of 13 times, whichever way the Muhurat hour went.

Here is the clearest lesson. A lakh rupees put in at the first Muhurat close in our study grew to ₹4,56,482 by the last one. That growth did not come from picking the right evening. It came from staying in the market through good years and bad ones. A SIP that keeps running through a rough patch works the same quiet way. If buying at Muhurat is a family custom you enjoy, enjoy it as a custom. The hour itself does not do the heavy lifting.

How we checked: we took all fourteen Muhurat sessions covered here. For each, we noted the Nifty's move that evening. We also noted its return over the Samvat year, from one Muhurat close to the next. We compared these with 3,193 ordinary sessions over about the same years. We also looked at the one-year return from each of 2,938 trading days. Index levels came from NSE's own daily archive. Then we tested whether the gaps were big enough to stand apart from chance. None of them were.

The limits are real. Fourteen sessions is a small sample, so the higher up-rate could be noise. The Muhurat hour is short and thinly traded. Its move is measured against the day before's close. All figures are price returns only. Dividends would add to every number, while costs and tax would take some away. The yearly comparison also uses overlapping windows. That makes the evidence look bigger than it really is.

Frequently asked questions

Does the stock market go up on Muhurat trading day?

Usually, but not always. From 2012 to 2025, the Nifty 50 closed higher in 11 of 14 Muhurat sessions. With so few sessions, that streak could still be down to chance.

Is buying shares at Muhurat trading lucky?

The data says no. ₹1 lakh bought at a Muhurat close and held for a year ended at ₹1,12,931 on average, while ₹1 lakh bought on any trading day ended at ₹1,13,980.

When is Muhurat trading in 2026?

The next Muhurat trading session is on Sunday, 8 November 2026. It opens Samvat 2083.

Sources and method

This note is based on Strota's own backtest research. Historical results are not forecasts or investment advice; see the editorial standards for methodology and limitations.