Strota Research

₹5,000 a month in gold since 2015 is now ₹20.1 lakh, but shares won most five-year runs

By Strota Newsroom · 2026-11-06 · How Strota reports

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A monthly gold habit started in January 2015 beat the Nifty handsomely. When we tested the same habit over many other five-year windows, the Nifty came out ahead far more often.

If a family had bought ₹5,000 of gold at the start of each month from January 2015, the ₹7,15,000 they paid in would be worth about ₹20.1 lakh after tax on 4 November 2026. The same monthly amount in the Nifty 50, the index of India's fifty biggest listed companies, would have reached ₹13,50,420 after tax. That looks like a clear win for gold, but when we ran the same habit over many other five-year windows, shares came out ahead far more often.

The gold here is a gold exchange-traded fund, a fund that trades on the stock exchange like a share and follows the price of the metal, with a 0.1% dealing cost on every buy and sell. The shares side uses the Nifty 50 version that reinvests dividends, so the comparison is fair to both. Gains are taxed under today's rules, at 12.5% on anything held longer than 12 months, and the ₹1.25 lakh yearly tax-free allowance on share gains is left out. Those same rules are applied to every plan, even ones that ended when the rules were different.

What ₹5,000 a month in gold since 2015 grew to

Worked out as a yearly return, the gold plan earned 16.44% after tax, against 10.28% for the same money in the Nifty. By now the family would hold about 164.6 g of gold, bought a little at a time. The reason is the price itself: a gram that sold for ₹2,718 in January 2015 fetched ₹14,189 by 4 November 2026, so the same gram is now worth 5.22 times as much.

The road was far from smooth. At the end of 2015, the ₹60,000 put in that first year was worth ₹57,299, a fall of 4.5%. By the end of 2018, after four full years of buying, ₹2,40,000 paid in had grown only to ₹2,51,541. For 11 months the pot was worth less than what had gone into it, and at its worst, in August 2015, it sat 6.7% below. A family watching that for four years could easily have wondered why they bothered.

Most of the gain came late. At the end of 2024 the plan had ₹6,00,000 paid in and was worth ₹11,29,867, up 88.3%. A year later, with ₹6,60,000 paid in, it was worth ₹19,70,020, up 198.5% on the money put in.

The Nifty won most of the 143 five-year plans

One start date can be lucky, so we ran a separate test. The same ₹5,000 monthly plan was run for exactly five years, starting from every month between January 2010 and November 2021, which gives 143 different plans. In that test the Nifty did better in 108 plans and gold in 35.

The typical result favoured shares too. The middle gold plan earned 9.16% a year after tax, while the middle Nifty plan earned 11.99%. Gold plans also ended with a loss after tax in 19 cases, compared with just one for the Nifty, and the worst gold plan, started in January 2011, lost 4.51% a year. Gold's best run was bigger, at 33.97% a year against the Nifty's best of 19.52%.

Gold's wins depended on the year the plan ended

Gold's good results bunch together in time. Every plan started in 2010, 2011, 2012 or 2013 lost to the Nifty, whichever month it began. Plans started in 2015 beat the Nifty in 11 of 12 months, those started in 2020 in 10 of 12, and those started in 2021 in 11 of 11. Those were the five-year stretches that finished during gold's two big price runs. The study looks only at what each plan was worth at the end, so it cannot say how gold and shares moved against each other along the way.

There is one more limit on the gold price itself. It is taken from the fund's price with its 0.81% yearly fee added back, and checked against RBI's published gold price, but it ran about 7% high in April 2020, when the fund traded above the value of its gold during the lockdown.

So the ₹20.1 lakh pot from a 2015 start is real, but it was built mostly by gold's climb after 2019, and above all in the last two years.

Frequently asked questions

How much would ₹5,000 a month in gold since 2015 be worth now?

Bought at the start of each month from January 2015, ₹7,15,000 of gold was worth about ₹20.1 lakh after tax on 4 November 2026. The same money in the Nifty 50 reached ₹13,50,420 after tax.

Is a gold SIP better than a Nifty SIP over five years?

Across 143 five-year monthly plans started between January 2010 and November 2021, the Nifty did better in 108 and gold in 35. Gold plans lost money after tax in 19 of those 143, against one Nifty plan.

Did monthly gold buying ever lose money?

Yes. The plan started in January 2015 was worth less than the money put in for 11 months, at worst 6.7% below in August 2015. In the five-year test, the worst gold plan, started in January 2011, lost 4.51% a year after tax.

Sources and method

This note is based on Strota's own backtest research. Historical results are not forecasts or investment advice; see the editorial standards for methodology and limitations.